Emva kokuqhambuka kweMfazwe yaseRussia-Ukraine, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okutya ehlabathi kuzise impembelelo kukhuseleko lokutya lwehlabathi, nto leyo eyenza ihlabathi laqonda ngokupheleleyo ukuba undoqo wokhuseleko lokutya yingxaki yoxolo nophuhliso lwehlabathi.
Ngo-2023/24, achatshazelwa ngamaxabiso aphezulu emveliso yezolimo kumazwe ngamazwe, imveliso yehlabathi jikelele yeesiriyeli neembotyi zesoya ifikelele kwirekhodi eliphezulu kwakhona, nto leyo eyenza amaxabiso eentlobo ngeentlobo zokutya kumazwe ajolise kwimarike emva koluhlu lweenkozo ezintsha ehle kakhulu.Nangona kunjalo, ngenxa yokunyuka kwamaxabiso okugqithisileyo okuziswe kukukhutshwa kwemali ephezulu yi-US Federal Reserve e-Asiya, ixabiso lerayisi kwimarike yamazwe ngamazwe linyuke ngokukhawuleza ukuze libe nerekhodi eliphezulu ukuze kulawuleke ukuhla kwamandla emali kunye nokulawula ukuthengiswa kwerayisi e-Indiya. .
Ulawulo lwentengiso eTshayina, eIndiya, naseRussia luchaphazele ukukhula kwabo kwemveliso yokutya ngo-2024, kodwa lilonke, imveliso yokutya yehlabathi ngo-2024 ikwinqanaba eliphezulu.
Ifanele ukuhoywa kakhulu, ixabiso legolide lehlabathi liqhubela phambili ukubetha irekhodi eliphezulu, ukuhla okukhawulezileyo kweemali zehlabathi, amaxabiso okutya ehlabathi jikelele kukho uxinzelelo olunyukayo, nje ukuba imveliso yonyaka kunye nomsantsa wemfuno, amaxabiso aphambili okutya anokubetha irekhodi ephezulu. kwakhona, ngoko ke imfuneko yangoku ukunikela ingqalelo enkulu kwimveliso yokutya, ukuthintela izothuso.
Ukulinywa kweecereal zehlabathi
Ngo-2023/24, indawo yee-cereal zehlabathi iya kuba yi-75.6 yezigidi zeehektare, ukwanda kwe-0.38% kunonyaka odlulileyo.Isiphumo sisonke sifikelele kwi-3.234 yeebhiliyoni zeetoni, kwaye isivuno ngehektare ibe yi-4,277 kg/ha, inyuke nge-2.86% kunye ne-3.26% kunonyaka ophelileyo, ngokulandelelanayo.(Itoni iyonke yerayisi yayizizigidigidi ezi-2.989 zeetoni, inyuke nge-3.63% ukusuka kunyaka ophelileyo.)
Ngo-2023/24, iimeko zemozulu yezolimo e-Asia, eYurophu nase-United States zilungile ngokubanzi, kwaye amaxabiso okutya aphezulu axhasa ukuphuculwa komdla wokutyala amafama, ezisa ukonyuka kwesivuno seyunithi kunye nommandla wezityalo zokutya zehlabathi.
Phakathi kwabo, indawo ehlwayelwe ingqolowa, ingqolowa kunye nerayisi kwi-2023/24 yayiyi-601.5 yezigidi zeehektare, phantsi kwe-0.56% ukusuka kunyaka odlulileyo;Isiphumo sisonke safikelela kwi-2.79 yeebhiliyoni zeetoni, ukwanda kwe-1.71%;Isivuno kwindawo nganye ibe ngama-4638 kg/ha, ukwanda nge-2.28% kunonyaka ophelileyo.
Imveliso eYurophu naseMzantsi Melika yachacha emva kwembalela ngo-2022;Ukwehla kwemveliso yerayisi eMzantsi-mpuma kunye ne-Asia-mpuma ye-Asia kuye kwaba nefuthe elibi elicacileyo kumazwe asakhulayo.
Amaxabiso okutya ehlabathi
NgoFebruwari 2024, isalathiso samaxabiso okutya emhlabeni wonke sasiyi-US $ 353 / ton, yehle nge-2.70% inyanga nenyanga kunye ne-13.55% unyaka nonyaka;NgoJanuwari-Februwari ka-2024, ixabiso lokutya elihlanganisiweyo kwihlabathi liphela laliyi-357 yeedola ngetoni, yehle nge-12.39% unyaka nonyaka.
Ukusukela kunyaka omtsha wezityalo (okuqala ngoMeyi), amaxabiso okutya abanzi ehlabathi ehlile, kwaye ixabiso eliphakathi ukusuka ngoMeyi ukuya kuFebruwari libe ngama-370 eedola zaseMelika/yetoni, ehle nge-11.97% unyaka nonyaka.Phakathi kwabo, ixabiso elihlanganisiweyo lengqolowa, ingqolowa kunye nelayisi ngoFebruwari laliyi-353 yeedola zase-US / itoni, phantsi kwe-2.19% ngenyanga-ngenyanga kunye ne-12.0% ngonyaka;Ixabiso eliqhelekileyo ngoJanuwari-Februwari 2024 laliyi-$ 357 / toni, phantsi kwe-12.15% ngonyaka-ngonyaka;Umyinge wonyaka omtsha wezityalo ukusuka ngoMeyi ukuya kuFebruwari yayingama-365 eedola ngetoni, ezantsi ngeedola ezingama-365 / ngeetoni zonyaka ngonyaka.
Isalathiso samaxabiso okuziinkozo xa sisonke kunye nesalathiso samaxabiso seesiriyeli ezintathu zehle kakhulu kunyaka omtsha wezityalo, nto leyo ebonisa ukuba imeko yobonelelo jikelele kunyaka omtsha wezityalo iphucukile.Amaxabiso akhoyo ngoku jikelele ehle ukuya kumanqanaba okugqibela abonwa ngoJulayi nango-Agasti ka-2020, kwaye imeko eqhubekayo yokuhla inokuchaphazela kakubi imveliso yokutya yehlabathi kuNyaka oMtsha.
Ukubonelela ngeenkozo zehlabathi kunye nebhalansi yemfuno
Ngo-2023/24, imveliso yeenkozo zerayisi emva kwerayisi yayiyi-2.989 yezigidigidi zeetoni, ukwanda kwe-3.63% kunyaka odlulileyo, kunye nokunyuka kwemveliso kwenza ukuba ixabiso lehle kakhulu.
Inani labemi behlabathi lilonke kulindeleke ukuba libe yi-8.026 yeebhiliyoni, ukwanda nge-1.04% kunyaka ophelileyo, kwaye ukukhula kwemveliso yokutya kunye nokubonelela kudlula ukukhula kwabemi behlabathi.Ukutya okuziinkozo kwihlabathi jikelele bekuyi-2.981 yeebhiliyoni zeetoni, kwaye isitokhwe sokuphela konyaka sasiyi-752 yezigidi zeetoni, kunye nokhuseleko lwe-25.7%.
Isiphumo somntu ngamnye sibe ngama-372.4 kg, nge-1.15% ngaphezulu kunonyaka ophelileyo.Ngokumalunga nokusetyenziswa, ukusetyenziswa komxhesho yi-157.8 kg, ukusetyenziswa kwesondlo yi-136.8 kg, enye i-76.9 kg, kwaye ukusetyenziswa ngokubanzi yi-371.5 kg.Iikhilogram.Ukuwa kwamaxabiso kuya kuzisa ukwanda kokunye ukusetyenziswa, okuya kuthintela ixabiso ukuba liqhubeke nokuwa kwixesha elizayo.
Imveliso yeesiriyeli kwihlabathi jikelele Outlook
Ngokobalo lwangoku lwamaxabiso ehlabathi jikelele, indawo yokulima okuziinkozo kwihlabathi ngo-2024 yi-760 yezigidi zeehektare, isivuno ngehektare nganye yi-4,393 kg/ha, kwaye imveliso yehlabathi iyonke yi-3,337 yezigidi zeetoni.Imveliso yerayisi yayiyi-3.09 yezigidigidi zeetoni, ukwanda kwe-3.40% kunonyaka odlulileyo.
Ngokwendlela yophuhliso yendawo kunye nesivuno kwiyunithi yendawo yamazwe amakhulu ehlabathi, ngo-2030, indawo yokutyala okuziinkozo yehlabathi iya kuba malunga ne-760 yezigidi zeehektare, isivuno kwindawo nganye iya kuba yi-4,748 kg / hektare, kunye nehlabathi lilonke. imveliso iya kuba 3.664 yeebhiliyoni zeetoni, ngaphantsi kwexesha elidlulileyo.Ukukhula okucothayo e-China, e-Indiya naseYurophu kukhokelele ekwehleni uqikelelo lwemveliso yeenkozo zehlabathi ngokwengingqi.
Ngo-2030, i-India, i-Brazil, i-United States kunye ne-China ziya kuba ngabavelisi bokutya abakhulu kwihlabathi.Ngo-2035, ummandla wokuhlwayela okuziinkozo emhlabeni wonke kulindeleke ukuba ufikelele kwi-789 yezigidi zeehektare, kunye nesivuno se-5,318 kg / ha, kunye nemveliso yehlabathi epheleleyo ye-4.194 yeetoni zeebhiliyoni.
Ukususela kwimeko yangoku, akukho nqongophala yomhlaba olinywayo kwihlabathi, kodwa ukukhula kwesivuno seyunithi nganye kuncinci, nto leyo efuna ingqalelo enkulu.Ukomeleza uphuculo lwendalo, ukwakha inkqubo yolawulo olufanelekileyo, kunye nokukhuthaza ukusetyenziswa kwenzululwazi yale mihla kunye nobuchwepheshe kwezolimo kumisela ukhuseleko lokutya kwihlabathi elizayo.
Ixesha lokuposa: Apr-08-2024