Emva kokuqhambuka kweMfazwe yaseRashiya neUkraine, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okutya ehlabathini kwabangela impembelelo kukhuseleko lokutya kwihlabathi, nto leyo eyenza ihlabathi laqonda ngokupheleleyo ukuba isiseko sokhuseleko lokutya yingxaki yoxolo nophuhliso lwehlabathi.
Ngowama-2023/24, ngenxa yamaxabiso aphezulu eemveliso zezolimo kwihlabathi liphela, imveliso iyonke yeenkozo kunye neembotyi zesoya ifikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu kwakhona, nto leyo eyenza amaxabiso eentlobo ngeentlobo zokutya kumazwe agxile kwimarike emva kokuba uluhlu lweenkozo ezintsha luwe kakhulu. Nangona kunjalo, ngenxa yokunyuka kwamaxabiso okugqithisileyo okubangelwe kukukhutshwa kwemali ephezulu yi-US Federal Reserve e-Asia, ixabiso lerayisi kwimarike yamazwe ngamazwe lenyuke kakhulu laya kwinqanaba eliphezulu ukuze kulawulwe ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ngaphakathi kwelizwe kunye nokulawula ukuthunyelwa kwerayisi eIndiya.
Ulawulo lweemarike eTshayina, eIndiya, naseRashiya luchaphazele ukukhula kwemveliso yokutya ngo-2024, kodwa ngokubanzi, imveliso yokutya yehlabathi ngo-2024 ikwinqanaba eliphezulu.
Ifanele ukuqwalaselwa kakhulu, ixabiso legolide lehlabathi liyaqhubeka lifikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu, ukuhla kwexabiso ngokukhawuleza kweemali zehlabathi, amaxabiso okutya ehlabathi apho anyuka uxinzelelo, xa imveliso yonyaka kunye nomsantsa wemfuno, amaxabiso okutya aphambili anokufikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu kwakhona, ngoko ke imfuneko yangoku yokunika ingqalelo enkulu kwimveliso yokutya, ukuthintela ukukhwankqiswa.
Ukulima iinkozo zehlabathi
Ngowama-2023/24, ummandla wehlabathi weenkozo uza kuba ziihektare ezingama-75.6 ezigidi, ukwanda kwe-0.38% kunonyaka ophelileyo. Imveliso iyonke ifikelele kwiitoni ezingama-3.234 ezigidi, kwaye isivuno ngehektare nganye sasiyi-4,277 kg/ha, ukunyuka nge-2.86% kunye ne-3.26% kunonyaka ophelileyo, ngokwahlukeneyo. (Imveliso iyonke yerayisi yayiyi-2.989 ezigidi zeetoni, ukunyuka nge-3.63% kunonyaka ophelileyo.)
Ngowama-2023/24, iimeko zemozulu kwezolimo e-Asia, eYurophu nase-United States ngokubanzi zilungile, kwaye amaxabiso aphezulu okutya axhasa ukuphucuka kwentshiseko yokutyala kwabalimi, nto leyo ebangela ukwanda kwesivuno seyunithi kunye nommandla wezityalo zokutya zehlabathi.
Phakathi kwazo, indawo etyalwe ingqolowa, umbona kunye nerayisi ngo-2023/24 yayiyi-601.5 yezigidi zeehektare, ihle nge-0.56% kunyaka ophelileyo; Imveliso iyonke ifikelele kwi-2.79 yeebhiliyoni zeetoni, ukunyuka kwe-1.71%; Isivuno kwindawo nganye yayiyi-4638 kg/ha, ukunyuka kwe-2.28% kunonyaka ophelileyo.
Imveliso eYurophu naseMzantsi Melika ibuyele esiqhelweni emva kwembalela ngo-2022; Ukwehla kwemveliso yerayisi eMzantsi naseMzantsi-mpuma Asia kube nefuthe elibi ngokucacileyo kumazwe asakhasayo.
Amaxabiso okutya ehlabathi jikelele
NgoFebruwari 2024, ixabiso lokutya okudityanisiweyo kwihlabathi liphela * laliyi-US $353 / itoni, lehle nge-2.70% inyanga nenyanga kunye ne-13.55% unyaka nonyaka; NgoJanuwari-Februwari 2024, ixabiso lokutya okudityanisiweyo eliqhelekileyo kwihlabathi liphela laliyi-$357 / itoni, lehle nge-12.39% unyaka nonyaka.
Ukususela kunyaka omtsha wesivuno (ukususela ngoMeyi), amaxabiso okutya apheleleyo ehlabathi aye ehla, kwaye ixabiso eliqhelekileyo lemveliso edityanisiweyo ukusuka ngoMeyi ukuya kuFebruwari yayingama-370 eedola zaseMelika/itoni, yehla nge-11.97% unyaka nonyaka. Phakathi kwazo, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo lemveliso edityanisiweyo yengqolowa, umbona kunye nerayisi ngoFebruwari yayingama-353 eedola zaseMelika/itoni, yehla nge-2.19% inyanga nenyanga kunye ne-12.0% unyaka nonyaka; Ixabiso eliqhelekileyo ngoJanuwari-Februwari 2024 yayiyi-$357/itoni, yehla nge-12.15% unyaka nonyaka; Ixabiso eliqhelekileyo lonyaka omtsha wemveliso edityanisiweyo ukusuka ngoMeyi ukuya kuFebruwari yayiyi-$365/itoni, yehla nge-$365/itoni unyaka nonyaka.
Isalathisi sexabiso lengqolowa iyonke kunye nesalathisi sexabiso leenkozo ezintathu eziphambili zehle kakhulu kunyaka omtsha wesivuno, nto leyo ebonisa ukuba imeko iyonke yokubonelela kunyaka omtsha wesivuno iphucukile. Amaxabiso angoku ngokubanzi ehla ukuya kumanqanaba abonwe okokugqibela ngoJulayi nango-Agasti 2020, kwaye ukuqhubeka kokuhla kunokuchaphazela kakubi imveliso yokutya yehlabathi kuNyaka oMtsha.
Umlinganiselo wobonelelo lwengqolowa kwihlabathi jikelele kunye nemfuno
Ngowama-2023/24, imveliso iyonke yengqolowa yerayisi emva kwerayisi yayiyi-2.989 yeebhiliyoni zeetoni, ukunyuka kwe-3.63% kunonyaka ophelileyo, kwaye ukunyuka kwemveliso kwenze ixabiso lehla kakhulu.
Inani labemi behlabathi lilonke kulindeleke ukuba libe yi-8.026 yeebhiliyoni, ukunyuka kwe-1.04% kunonyaka ophelileyo, kwaye ukukhula kwemveliso yokutya kunye nokubonelela kudlula ukukhula kwabemi behlabathi. Ukusetyenziswa kweenkozo kwihlabathi liphela bekuyi-2.981 yeebhiliyoni zeetoni, kwaye isitokhwe sonyaka sasiziitoni ezingama-752 ezigidi, kunye nomlinganiselo wokhuseleko we-25.7%.
Imveliso yomntu ngamnye ibiyi-372.4 kg, ingaphezulu nge-1.15% kunonyaka ophelileyo. Ngokuphathelele ukusetyenziswa, ukusetyenziswa kwesabelo yi-157.8 kg, ukusetyenziswa kokutya yi-136.8 kg, ukusetyenziswa okunye yi-76.9 kg, kwaye ukusetyenziswa ngokubanzi yi-371.5 kg. Iikhilogram. Ukuhla kwamaxabiso kuya kubangela ukunyuka kokusetyenziswa okunye, okuya kuthintela ixabiso ukuba liqhubeke nokuhla kwixesha elizayo.
Imbonakalo yemveliso yeenkozo zehlabathi
Ngokwendlela yokubala amaxabiso ehlabathi jikelele ngoku, indawo yokuhlwayela iinkozo kwihlabathi liphela ngo-2024 yi-760 yezigidi zeehektare, isivuno ngehektare nganye yi-4,393 kg/ha, kwaye imveliso iyonke yehlabathi yi-3,337 yezigidi zeetoni. Imveliso yerayisi yayiyi-3.09 yeebhiliyoni zeetoni, ukunyuka kwe-3.40% kunonyaka ophelileyo.
Ngokwendlela ephucukileyo yophuhliso lwendawo kunye nesivuno ngeyunithi yendawo yamazwe amakhulu ehlabathi, ngo-2030, indawo yokuhlwayela iinkozo kwihlabathi iya kuba malunga ne-760 yezigidi zeehektare, isivuno ngeyunithi yendawo iya kuba yi-4,748 kg/hektare, kwaye imveliso iyonke yehlabathi iya kuba yi-3.664 yeebhiliyoni zeetoni, ngaphantsi kwexesha elidlulileyo. Ukukhula okucothayo eTshayina, eIndiya naseYurophu kukhokelele ekuqikeleleni okuphantsi kwemveliso yengqolowa yehlabathi ngokwendawo.
Ngowama-2030, i-India, iBrazil, i-United States kunye ne-China ziya kuba ngabavelisi bokutya abakhulu kwihlabathi. Ngowama-2035, kulindeleke ukuba indawo yokuhlwayela iinkozo kwihlabathi ifikelele kwi-789 yezigidi zeehektare, ngesivuno se-5,318 kg/ha, kunye nemveliso iyonke yehlabathi ye-4.194 yeebhiliyoni zeetoni.
Ngokwemeko yangoku, akukho kunqongophala komhlaba olinyiweyo ehlabathini, kodwa ukukhula kwesivuno seyunithi nganye kuhamba kancinci, nto leyo efuna ingqalelo enkulu. Ukuqinisa ukuphuculwa kwendalo, ukwakha inkqubo yolawulo efanelekileyo, kunye nokukhuthaza ukusetyenziswa kwesayensi yanamhlanje kunye netekhnoloji kwezolimo kumisela ukhuseleko lokutya lwehlabathi kwixesha elizayo.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Epreli-08-2024