I-Aedes aegypti yeyona vector ephambili yee-arboviruses ezininzi (ezifana nedengue, chikungunya, kunye neZika) ezibangela ukuqhambuka kwezifo zabantu rhoqo kwimimandla eshushu kunye neshushu. Ulawulo lolu qhambuko luxhomekeke kulawulo lwezityalo, rhoqo ngendlela yezitshizi zokubulala izinambuzane ezijolise kwiingcongconi ezingabantu abadala. Nangona kunjalo, ukugqunywa kwendawo kunye nokuphindaphindwa kokutshizwa okufunekayo ukuze kusebenze ngeyona ndlela ifanelekileyo akucaci. Kolu phononongo, sichaza ifuthe lokutshiza kwangaphakathi nge-ultra-low volume (ULV) pyrethroid insecticides kwimizi yeengcongconi i-Aedes aegypti.
Iziphumo zethu zibonisa ukuba ukuhla kwekhaya e-Aedes aegypti ikakhulu kungenxa yokutshiza okwenzeka kwindlu enye, kungekho siphumo songezelelweyo sokutshiza kumakhaya angabamelwane. Ukusebenza kokutshiza kufuneka kulinganiswe ngokwexesha ukusuka kwisitshizi sokugqibela, njengoko singakhange sifumane siphumo sinyukayo kwizitshizi ezilandelelanayo. Ngokusekelwe kwimodeli yethu, siqikelela ukuba ukusebenza kokutshiza kwehle ngama-50% malunga neentsuku ezingama-28 emva kokutshiza.
Ukwehla kobuninzi be-Aedes aegypti phakathi kwekhaya kugqitywe ikakhulu linani leentsuku ukusukela oko kutshizwa kokugqibela kwelo khaya, kuqaqambisa ukubaluleka kokutshiza kwindawo ezinomngcipheko omkhulu, ngokutshiza rhoqo kuxhomekeke kutshintsho lwentsholongwane lwasekhaya.
Kolu phononongo, sisebenzise idatha evela kwizilingo ezibini ezinkulu zokutshiza i-ultra-low volume indoor pyrethroid kwisixeko sase-Iquitos, kwingingqi ye-Amazon yasePeru ukuqikelela impembelelo yokutshiza kwe-ultra-low volume kumthamo wengcongconi we-aedes aegypti ngaphakathi kwekhaya, udlulela ngaphaya kwemida yendlu enye. Uphando lwangaphambili luqikelele isiphumo sonyango olusezantsi kakhulu olusekwe ekubeni amakhaya angaphakathi okanye ngaphandle kwendawo yongenelelo enkulu. Kolu phononongo, sijonge ukwahlula iziphumo zonyango kwinqanaba elingcono lemizi nganye ukuze siqonde igalelo elinxulumeneyo lonyango lwangaphakathi kumakhaya xa kuthelekiswa nonyango kumakhaya angabamelwane. Ngokuhamba kwexesha, siye saqikelela isiphumo esongezelekayo sokutshiza okuphindaphindiweyo xa kuthelekiswa nokutshiza kwamva nje kwi-Aedes aegypti yokuncipha kwizindlu zeenkukhu ukuqonda ukuphindaphindwa kokutshiza okufunekayo kunye nokuvavanya ukwehla kokusebenza kokutshiza ngokuhamba kwexesha. Olu hlalutyo lunokunceda ekuphuhliseni izicwangciso zokulawula i-vector kunye nokubonelela ngolwazi lwe-parameterisation yeemodeli ukuqikelela ukusebenza kwazo.
Isiphumo somdla sichazwa njengenani elipheleleyo labantu abadala i-Aedes aegypti eqokelelwe kwikhaya ngalinye i kunye nexesha t , evezwe kwisakhelo se-Bayesian multilevel usebenzisa i-negative binomial distribution to account for overdispersion, ingakumbi ekubeni inani elikhulu le-null Aedes aegypti abadala baqokelelwa. Ukunikezelwa kweeyantlukwano kwindawo kunye noyilo lovavanyo phakathi kwezifundo ezimbini, zonke iimodeli zomgqatswa zifakwe kwidatha yedatha ye-S-2013 kunye ne-L-2014, ngokulandelanayo. Iimodeli zabaviwa ziphuhliswa ngokwefom ngokubanzi:
a imele nayiphi na iseti yeenguqu zomgqatswa ezilinganisa impembelelo yokutshiza kwikhaya ngexesha, njengoko kuchaziwe ngezantsi.
b imele nayiphi na iseti yezinto eziguquguqukayo zomgqatswa olinganisa impembelelo yokutshiza kubamelwane kusapho lonke ngexesha, njengoko kuchaziwe ngezantsi.
Sivavanye i-b-statistic elula ngokubala umyinge wemizi engaphakathi kweringi kumgama onikiweyo ukusuka kwikhaya i-i etshizwe kwiveki ephambi kwe-t.
apho h linani lemizi kwiringi r, kwaye r ngumgama phakathi kweringi kunye nekhaya i. Umgama phakathi kwezangqa unikezelwe ngokusekelwe kule miba ilandelayo:
Imodeli ehambelanayo ilungele ixesha elinobunzima ngaphakathi kwindlu yokuvezwa kokutshiza. Umgca ongqindilili obomvu umele eyona modeli ifanelekileyo, kunye nowona mgca ungqindilili omele eyona modeli ifanelekileyo kunye neminye imigca eshinyeneyo emele imifuziselo iWAIC yayo ingahlukanga kakhulu kweyona imodeli ifanelekileyo yeWAIC. Umsebenzi wokubola we-BA usetyenziswa kwinani leentsuku ukususela ekutshizweni kokugqibela ezikwezona modeli ziphezulu ezintlanu zifaneleke ngokusekwe kumndilili wokuhlelwa kwe-WAIC kuyo yonke imifuniselo emibini.
Imodeli iqikelele ukuba ukusebenza kwesitshizi kwehle ngama-50% malunga neentsuku ezingama-28 emva kokutshiza, ngelixa abantu base-Aedes aegypti baphantse bachacha malunga neentsuku ezingama-50-60 emva kokutshiza.
Kolu phononongo, sichaza ifuthe lokutshiza kwe-pyrethrin yangaphakathi ye-ultra-low volume kubantu bangaphakathi be-Aedes aegypti ngokunxulumene neziganeko zokutshiza ezenzeka ngokwethutyana kunye nendawo ezikufutshane nekhaya. Ukuqondwa ngcono kobude bexesha kunye nobungakanani besithuba sokuchaphazeleka kokutshiza kuluntu lwase-Aedes aegypti kuya kunceda ekuchongeni ekujoliswe kuko ekugqunyweni kwendawo kunye nokuphindaphindwa kokutshizwa okufunekayo ngexesha longenelelo lolawulo lwe-vector, kwaye kuya kubonelela ngesiseko sokuthelekisa iindlela ezahlukeneyo zokulawula ii-vector. ulwazi. Iziphumo zethu zibonisa ukuba ukuncitshiswa kwabemi be-Aedes aegypti kwangaphakathi kubangelwe kukutshiza kwindlu enye, kungekho siphumo songezelelweyo sokutshiza ngamakhaya akwimimandla ekufutshane. Impembelelo yokutshiza kuluntu lwangaphakathi lwe-Aedes aegypti ixhomekeke ikakhulu kwixesha ukusukela ekutshizweni kokugqibela kwaye yehla kancinci ngaphezulu kweentsuku ezingama-60. Akukho kuncitshiswa ngakumbi kwabantu be-Aedes aegypti kwabonwa ngenxa yempembelelo eyongezelekayo yeziganeko ezininzi zokutshiza ngaphakathi kwindlu. Ngokubanzi, inani labantu base-Aedes aegypti lehlile. Inani leengcongconi ze-Aedes aegypti ekhayeni lixhomekeke ubukhulu becala kwixesha eligqithileyo ukususela ekutshizweni kokugqibela kwelo khaya.
Umda obalulekileyo wokufunda kwethu kukuba asizange silawule iminyaka yabantu abadala be-Aedes aegypti mosquitoes eqokelelweyo. Uhlalutyo lwangaphambili lwale mifuniselo [14] lubonise ukuba ukusasazwa kweminyaka yabasetyhini abadala bathande ukuba bancinci (ukwanda kwenani labasetyhini abangasebenziyo) kwindawo yokutshiza ye-L-2014 xa kuthelekiswa nendawo ye-buffer. Ngaloo ndlela, nangona asizange sifumane indima eyongezelelweyo yenkcazo yeziganeko zokutshiza kwimizi ejikelezileyo kwi-Aedes aegypti ubuninzi kwikhaya elinikeziweyo, asinakuqiniseka ukuba akukho miphumo yengingqi kwi-Aedes aegypti dynamics yabantu kwiindawo apho iziganeko zokutshiza zenzeka rhoqo.
Eminye imida yophononongo lwethu ibandakanya ukungakwazi ukuphendula ngokutshiza okungxamisekileyo nguMphathiswa wezeMpilo, okwenzekileyo malunga neenyanga ezi-2 ngaphambi kokutshiza ngovavanyo lwe-L-2014, ngenxa yokungabikho kolwazi oluneenkcukacha malunga nendawo yayo kunye nexesha. Uhlalutyo lwangaphambili lubonise ukuba ezi zitshizi zinefuthe elifanayo kuyo yonke indawo yokufunda, zenza umgangatho osisiseko oqhelekileyo we-Aedes aegypti density; eneneni, ngexesha lokulinga lokutshiza, abantu baseAedes aegypti babesele beqalisile ukuchacha . Ngaphezu koko, umahluko kwiziphumo phakathi kwamaxesha amabini okulinga unokuba ngenxa yokungafani koyilo lofundo kunye nokuchaphazeleka okwahlukileyo kwe-Aedes aegypti ukuya kwi-cypermethrin, kunye ne-S-2013 ebukhali kune-L-2014.
Okokugqibela, iziphumo zethu zibonisa ukuba iziphumo zokutshiza kwangaphakathi beziphelele kwikhaya apho bekutshizwa khona, kwaye ukutshiza kumakhaya angabamelwane akuzange kunciphise ngakumbi abantu base-Aedes aegypti. Iingcongconi zabantu abadala i-Aedes aegypti zisenokuhlala kufutshane okanye ngaphakathi kwezindlu, zidibanela kwi-10 m kwaye zihamba umgama ophakathi kwe-106 m. Ke, ukutshiza indawo ejikeleze indlu akunakuba nefuthe elikhulu kubemi baseAedes aegypti kuloo ndlu. Oku kuxhasa iziphumo zangaphambili zokuba ukutshiza ngaphandle okanye kufutshane nendlu akunasiphumo. Nangona kunjalo, njengoko kukhankanyiwe ngasentla, kunokubakho iimpembelelo zengingqi kwi-Aedes aegypti ye-dynamics yabemi, kwaye imodeli yethu ayizange yenzelwe ukufumanisa iziphumo ezinjalo.
Xa zidibene, iziphumo zethu ziqaqambisa ukubaluleka kokufikelela kwikhaya ngalinye elisemngciphekweni omkhulu wosulelo ngexesha loqhambuko, njengoko amakhaya angakhange atshizwe kutshanje akanako ukuxhomekeka kungenelelo olukufutshane okanye ungenelelo oluninzi lwangaphambili ukunciphisa inani leengcongconi ezikhoyo ngoku. Ngenxa yokuba ezinye izindlu zazingafikeleleki, iinzame zokuqala zokutshiza zazisoloko ziphumela ekugqunyweni ngokuyinxenye. Ukutyelela ngokuphindaphindiweyo amakhaya aphosileyo kunokwandisa ukhuseleko, kodwa imbuyekezo iye icutheke kumjikelo ngamnye wamalinge kwaye iindleko zomzi ngamnye ziyanyuka. Iinkqubo zolawulo lwezilwanyana ngoko ke kufuneka ziphuculwe ngokujolisa kwiindawo apho umngcipheko wosulelo lwedengue uphezulu. Usulelo lweDengue luyahluka kakhulu esithubeni nakwixesha, kwaye uhlolo lwasekuhlaleni lweendawo ezisengozini enkulu, kubandakanywa amanani abantu, iimeko zokusingqongileyo nezentlalo, kufuneka zikhokele kwiinzame ekujoliswe kuzo zokulawula izilwanyana . Ezinye izicwangciso ezijoliswe kuzo, ezinjengokudibanisa ukutshiza okushiyekileyo kwangaphakathi kunye nokulandela umkhondo woqhagamshelwano, ziye zasebenza kwixesha elidlulileyo kwaye zinokuphumelela kwezinye iimeko . Iimodeli zemathematika zisenokunceda ekukhetheni amacebo okulawula i-vector ekunciphiseni usulelo kwindawo nganye ngaphandle kwemfuneko yolingo oluxabisa kakhulu noluntsonkothileyo kummandla . Iziphumo zethu zibonelela ngepharamitha eneenkcukacha yeziphumo zesithuba kunye nezexeshana zokutshiza kwangaphakathi komthamo ophantsi kakhulu, onokuthi unike ingcaciso kwiinzame zexesha elizayo zobuchwephesha.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jan-13-2025