Injani imeko kunye nethemba lorhwebo lwezolimo phakathi kweTshayina kunye namazwe e-LAC?

I. Isishwankathelo sorhwebo lwezolimo phakathi kweTshayina kunye namazwe e-LAC ukusukela oko bangena kwi-WTO

Ukususela ngo-2001 ukuya ku-2023, ubungakanani borhwebo lweemveliso zezolimo phakathi kweTshayina kunye namazwe e-LAC bubonise ukukhula okuqhubekayo, ukusuka kwi-2.58 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zaseMelika ukuya kwi-81.03 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zaseMelika, kunye nomyinge wokukhula konyaka we-17.0%. Phakathi kwazo, ixabiso lokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe linyuke ukusuka kwi-2.40 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zaseMelika ukuya kwi-77.63 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zaseMelika, ukwanda kwamaxesha angama-31; Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kunyuke ngokuphindwe ka-19 ukusuka kwi-170 yezigidi zeedola ukuya kwi-3.40 yeebhiliyoni zeedola. Ilizwe lethu likwindawo yokusilela kurhwebo lweemveliso zezolimo namazwe aseLatin America, kwaye ukusilela kuyaqhubeka nokwanda. Imakethi enkulu yokusetyenziswa kwemveliso yezolimo kwilizwe lethu ibonelele ngamathuba amahle ophuhliso lwezolimo eLatin America. Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, iimveliso zezolimo ezikumgangatho ophezulu ezivela eLatin America, ezifana ne-Chilean cherry kunye ne-Ecuadorian white shrimp, zingene kwimarike yethu.

Lilonke, isabelo samazwe aseLatin America kurhwebo lwezolimo lwaseTshayina siye sanda kancinci kancinci, kodwa ukusasazwa kwezinto ezingeniswayo kunye nezokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe akulingani. Ukususela ngo-2001 ukuya ku-2023, umlinganiselo worhwebo lwezolimo lwaseTshayina-eLatin America kurhwebo lwezolimo lwaseTshayina lunyuke ukusuka kwi-9.3% ukuya kwi-24.3%. Phakathi kwazo, ukungeniswa kwezolimo eTshayina kumazwe aseLatin America kubalwe umlinganiselo wokungeniswa kwemveliso iyonke ukusuka kwi-20.3% ukuya kwi-33.2%, ukuthunyelwa kwezolimo eTshayina kumazwe aseLatin America kubalwe umlinganiselo wokuthunyelwa kwemveliso iyonke ukusuka kwi-1.1% ukuya kwi-3.4%.

2. Iimpawu zorhwebo lwezolimo phakathi kweTshayina kunye namazwe e-LAC

(1) Amaqabane orhwebo agxile kakhulu

Ngowama-2001, iArgentina, iBrazil kunye nePeru beziziindawo ezintathu eziphambili zokungenisa iimveliso zezolimo ezivela eLatin America, ngexabiso lilonke lokungenisa eliyi-2.13 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zaseMelika, eliyi-88.8% yenani lilonke leemveliso zezolimo ezivela eLatin America ngaloo nyaka. Ngokukhula kwentsebenziswano yorhwebo lwezolimo namazwe aseLatin America, kwiminyaka yakutshanje, iChile idlule iPeru yaba ngumthombo wesithathu ngobukhulu wokungenisa iimveliso zezolimo eLatin America, kwaye iBrazil idlule iArgentina yaba ngumthombo wokuqala omkhulu wokungenisa iimveliso zezolimo. Ngowama-2023, ukungeniswa kwemveliso zezolimo eTshayina ezivela eBrazil, eArgentina naseChile kufikelele kwi-58.93 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zaseMelika, okuyi-88.8% yenani lilonke leemveliso zezolimo ezivela kumazwe aseLatin America ngaloo nyaka. Phakathi kwazo, iChina ingenise i-58.58 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zaseMelika zeemveliso zezolimo ezivela eBrazil, okuyi-75.1% yenani lilonke leemveliso zezolimo ezivela kumazwe aseLatin America, okuyi-25.0% yenani lilonke leemveliso zezolimo eTshayina. IBrazil ayisiyo nje kuphela indawo enkulu yokungenisa iimveliso zezolimo eLatin America, kodwa ikwayindawo enkulu yokungenisa iimveliso zezolimo kwihlabathi liphela.

Ngowama-2001, iCuba, iMexico kunye neBrazil beziziimarike ezintathu eziphambili zokuthumela ngaphandle kwezolimo eTshayina kumazwe e-LAC, ezinexabiso lilonke lokuthumela ngaphandle eliyi-110 yezigidi zeedola zaseMelika, ezibalelwa kwi-64.4% yemveliso iyonke yezolimo eTshayina kumazwe e-LAC ngaloo nyaka. Ngowama-2023, iMexico, iChile kunye neBrazil zezona marike zithathu ziphambili zokuthumela ngaphandle kwezolimo eTshayina kumazwe aseLatin America, ezinexabiso lilonke lokuthumela ngaphandle eliyi-2.15 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zaseMelika, ezibalelwa kwi-63.2% yemveliso iyonke yezolimo ethunyelwa ngaphandle kuloo nyaka.

(3) Ukungeniswa kwemveliso kwamanye amazwe kugcwele imbewu yeoyile kunye neemveliso zemfuyo, kwaye ukungeniswa kwengqolowa kuye kwanda kakhulu kwiminyaka yakutshanje.

I-China yeyona nkampani ingenisa iimveliso zezolimo ezininzi kwihlabathi liphela, kwaye ifuna kakhulu iimveliso zezolimo ezifana neembotyi zesoya, inyama yenkomo kunye neziqhamo ezivela kumazwe aseLatin America. Ukusukela oko i-China yangena kwi-WTO, ukungeniswa kweemveliso zezolimo ezivela kumazwe aseLatin America ikakhulu ziimbewu zeoyile kunye neemveliso zemfuyo, kwaye ukungeniswa kweenkozo kuye kwanda kakhulu kwiminyaka yakutshanje.

Ngowama-2023, iTshayina ingenise iidola ezingama-42.29 eebhiliyoni zaseMelika zeembewu yeoyile ezivela kumazwe aseLatin America, ukonyuka kwe-3.3%, okubangela i-57.1% yazo zonke iimveliso zezolimo ezivela kumazwe aseLatin America. Ukungeniswa kweemveliso zemfuyo, iimveliso zasemanzini kunye neenkozo bekuyi-13.67 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zaseMelika, i-7.15 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zaseMelika kunye ne-5.13 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zaseMelika, ngokwahlukeneyo. Phakathi kwazo, ukungeniswa kweemveliso zombona bekuyi-4.05 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zaseMelika, ukonyuka kwamaxesha ayi-137,671, ikakhulu ngenxa yokuba umbona waseBrazil uthunyelwe kwamanye amazwe ukuze kuhlolwe kwaye kubekwe ecaleni iTshayina. Inani elikhulu lokungeniswa kweenkozo zaseBrazil liguqule indlela yokungeniswa kweenkozo eyayilawulwa yiUkraine ne-United States ngaphambili.

(4) Ukuthumela ngaphandle iimveliso zasemanzini kunye nemifuno

Ukususela oko iTshayina yangena kwi-WTO, ukuthunyelwa kweemveliso zezolimo kumazwe e-LAC bekuyimveliso zasemanzini kunye nemifuno, kwiminyaka yakutshanje, ukuthunyelwa kweemveliso eziziinkozo kunye neziqhamo kuye kwanda ngokuthe chu. Ngo-2023, ukuthunyelwa kweemveliso zasemanzini kunye nemifuno eTshayina kumazwe aseLatin America bekuyi-$1.19 yeebhiliyoni kunye ne-$6.0 yeebhiliyoni ngokwahlukeneyo, oku kubiza i-35.0% kunye ne-17.6% yazo zonke iimveliso zezolimo ezithunyelwa kumazwe aseLatin America, ngokwahlukeneyo.