Ngomhla we-11 kuJuni kulo nyaka, iZiko lokuQaphela iMozulu le-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) yase-United States likhuphe ngokusesikweni isilumkiso se-El Niño - amagama asemthethweni ayesithi "i-El Niño ifikile". Le ayisiyongxelo yemozulu eqhelekileyo yonyaka. Uvavanyo lwamathuba olukhutshwe ngaxeshanye lubonise ukuba amathuba okuba esi siganeko sibe kwinqanaba "elinamandla kakhulu" phakathi kukaNovemba 2026 noJanuwari 2027 liphezulu njenge-63%, kwaye ubunzulu balo buza "kuphakathi kwezona ziphezulu kwimbali ngeerekhodi zezixhobo ukusukela ngo-1950". Umyinge wengqikelelo yeqela le-European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) unamandla ngakumbi: kulindeleke ukuba ubushushu bomphezulu wolwandle obungaqhelekanga kummandla we-Niño 3.4 buza kufikelela kwi-+3℃ ngoDisemba kulo nyaka, kwaye ezinye iimeko zide zidlule +4℃.
Ukuqonda ukubaluleka kwale nombolo: Isiganeko esinamandla se-El Niño ukususela oko kwaqala iirekhodi zemozulu zanamhlanje senzeka ngo-2015-16, kunye ne-anomaly ephezulu ye-+2.6℃.Ukuba olu qikelelo lungasentla luyazaliseka, isiganeko sowama-2026-27 siya kudlula ubuncinane nge-15%, singene kuluhlu olungazange lubonwe ngaphambili.
Zisixelela ntoni iirekhodi zembali?
I-El Niño ayisiyonto intsha, kodwa ngalo lonke ixesha xa kusenzeka isiganeko "samandla amakhulu", sishiya amanxeba kwimbali yezolimo.
1997-98: Incopho yeNiño 3.4 index yesi siganeko yayimalunga ne +2.3℃, nto leyo eyenza ukuba ibe yenye yezona zinamandla kwinkulungwane yama-20. I-Indonesia, iiPhilippines, kunye neThailand zathwaxwa yimbalela enzima. I-Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) ibike ukuba isivuno sesivuno kuMbindi Melika nakwimimandla yaseCaribbean sehle malunga ne-15% ukuya kwi-20% xa kuthelekiswa nonyaka ophelileyo. Amanye amazwe athwaxwa yilahleko enkulu nangakumbi. Iindawo zokutyala ingqolowa eBrazil naseArgentina zehle kakhulu ngenxa yemvula engaqhelekanga. KuMzantsi-mpuma we-Asia, esi siganeko sakhokelela ngokuthe ngqo ekulahlekelweni kweetoni zerayisi ezimalunga ne-15 yezigidi.
2015-16: Zombini zifikelele kwincopho ye +2.6℃, eyayiyeyona iphezulu kwiirekhodi zanamhlanje. Imveliso yombona eIndiya yehle malunga ne-4%, kwaye imveliso yerayisi yehle malunga ne-1%. Imarike yaseMzantsi-mpuma Asia yachaphazeleka, kwaye ixabiso lerayisi lenyuka ngokufanelekileyo, nto leyo eyanyanzela iIndiya ukuba iqinise ngokuphindaphindiweyo imiqathango yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe. UMzantsi Afrika wathwaxwa yimbalela enkulu, kwaye imveliso yamandla eKariba Dam eZambia naseZimbabwe yehla kakhulu, nto leyo eyakhokelela kwingxaki yesibini yamandla eyasasazeka kumazwe amaninzi.
Ngowama-2023-24: I-World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) idwelise esi siganeko njengesinye sezona zihlanu zinamandla kakhulu ezirekhodiweyo. Esi siganeko, kunye nokufudumala kwehlabathi okuqhubekayo, siqhubele phambili unyaka ka-2024 ukuba ube ngunyaka oshushu kakhulu kwirekhodi kwaye sabangela ukuba kubekho imbalela kwezolimo kwiindawo ezithile zaseMpuma Afrika naseMzantsi Asia.
Uphononongo olukhulu olupapashwe kwiNature Communications ngo-2014 lubonise ukuba iziganeko ze-El Niño zihlala zibangela ukuba ukusebenza okudibeneyo kwesivuno sombona, irayisi kunye nengqolowa kwihlabathi liphela kutshintshe ukusuka kumlinganiselo oqhelekileyo nge--4.3% ukuya kwi-+0.8%, ngelixa iimbotyi zesoya zizuze malunga ne-2.1% ukuya kwi-5.4% ngenxa yokuna kwemvula okuphucukileyo kwiindawo ezithile zaseMelika. Emva kwale datha kukho umahluko omkhulu wengingqi - isiphumo asixhomekekanga kubunzulu besiganeko, kodwa endaweni yoko kuxhomekeke kwindawo okhula kuyo kunye nento oyityalayo.
Ingqikelelo yokwahluka kwengingqi ngo-2026
Imithetho yembali isinike imephu engagqibelelanga kodwa eluncedo yeengozi.
I-Indiya kunye ne-Asia eseMzantsi: I-India ibandakanya malunga ne-24% yemveliso yerayisi ehlabathini. I-monsoon yaseIndiya inolwalamano olubi olufana nolwencwadi kunye ne-ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) - ngexesha leminyaka ye-El Niño, imonsoon yasehlotyeni idla ngokuba buthathaka. Iziganeko ezintathu ezinkulu ezinkulu ngo-1997-98, 2015-16, kunye no-2023-24 nganye yazo yabangela imiqathango yokuthumela ngaphandle eNew Delhi, idlulisela uxinzelelo kumazwe angenisa irayisi kwihlabathi liphela. Ingxelo yesilumkiso yangoku ye-FAO ithi ngokucacileyo ukuba umngcipheko wembalela yezolimo eMzantsi Asia nakuMzantsi-mpuma Asia "ngowona unzima kakhulu", kwaye amathuba angaphezu kwama-50% kwezinye iindawo ezijongene nembalela.
UMzantsi-mpuma weAsia: I-Indonesia, iiPhilippines, iThailand, iVietnam, kunye neCambodia zonke zikwindawo eyayinomngcipheko ophezulu ngokwembali. Ioyile yesundu inobuthathaka kakhulu - iMalaysia ne-Indonesia zezona mveliso ziphambili zeoyile yesundu kwihlabathi liphela, kwaye omabini la mazwe awazange asinde kuyo nayiphi na intlekele ye-El Niño kwixesha elidlulileyo. Umqhaphu kunye neswekile nazo zikwindawo enomngcipheko ophezulu.
IOstreliya: IOstreliya ithathwa njengelizwe elivelisa ingqolowa elinovelwano kakhulu kwimiqondiso ye-ENSO kwihlabathi liphela. Ngexesha leminyaka ye-El Niño, imvula eQueensland naseNew South Wales idla ngokubonisa ukuphambuka okukhulu kumanqanaba aqhelekileyo, nto leyo ebeka umngcipheko ngqo kwingqolowa yasentwasahlobo kunye nerhasi.
EBrazil: Le meko yeyona inzima kakhulu. I-El Niño idla ngokuzisa imvula eninzi kumazantsi eBrazil, nto leyo eluncedo ekukhuleni kweembotyi zesoya. Nangona kunjalo, imvula eninzi inokukhokelela ekwehleni komgangatho wekofu kunye nokwanda kwezifo zezinye izityalo ezineembotyi. Ingxelo ye-JRC ye-European Union ibonisa ukuba ixabiso lehlabathi lengqolowa eqinileyo kulindeleke ukuba linyuke kakhulu kwimeko yokwanda kobushushu be-El Niño, ngelixa amaxabiso ehlabathi eembotyi zesoya kunye nengqolowa ebomvu yasebusika eqinileyo anokwehla ngenxa yeenzuzo ezivela kwiindawo zemveliso zaseMelika.
IMpuma Afrika kunye neSahel: Lo mmandla ulandela ingqiqo eyahlukileyo kweyaseMzantsi-mpuma Asia - ngexesha leminyaka ye-El Niño, imvula iyanda, kodwa kwimeko yokonakaliswa komhlaba kunye neziseko zophuhliso ezibuthathaka, imvula enkulu isenokungakhokeleli ekuvunweni kodwa endaweni yoko izise izikhukula kunye nokukhukuliseka komhlaba. I-FAO ikhuphe isilumkiso ngeSomalia, kwaye isixhobo se-INFORM Warning se-JRC sichaze amazwe aliqela aseMbindi Afrika njengakwinqanaba "eliphezulu lomngcipheko wobuntu".
ITshayina: Ngokwembali, impembelelo ye-El Niño eTshayina yahluka ngokwemimandla. Umzantsi weTshayina wafumana imvula eninzi, ngelixa umntla nomntla-mpuma zazijongene nomngcipheko wokwanda kwembalela. Ngexesha lonyaka ka-1997-98, kwakukho izikhukula ezinkulu kumzantsi weTshayina kunye nembalela enkulu kumntla-mpuma, eyachaphazela isivuno saloo nyaka.
Ingqiqo yokudluliselwa kwemarike yeekhemikhali zezolimo
Ubudlelwane phakathi kweziganeko zemozulu kunye nemarike yezibulali-zinambuzane ayilulo ulwalamano oluhle nje kwaye kufuneka luxoxwe ngokubanzi.
Umngcipheko wokuncipha kwemfuno: Ngexesha lembalela, ukuzimisela kwabalimi ukutyala kunye nobukhulu botyalo-mali lwabo kuncipha, kwaye ukuthengwa kwezibulali-zinambuzane kudla ngokuba yenye yeendleko ezinokuthi zincitshiswe. Ngexesha lesiganeko se-El Niño kuMzantsi-mpuma we-Asia ngo-1997-98, imfuno yezibulali-zinambuzane e-Indonesia nasePhilippines yehla kakhulu. Oku kwakubangelwa kukuncipha kwendawo yezityalo kwaye ngokuyinxenye kuba abalimi banciphise utyalo-mali lwabo emva kokuba ingeniso yabo yehlile.
Utshintsho kwisakhiwo sezinambuzane nezifo: Imvula enkulu kwiindawo ezithile ikhokelela kwinani eliphezulu lezifo, ngelixa imbalela inokubangela ukuhlasela okanye ukuqhambuka kwezinambuzane ezithile. Ngokwembali, bekukho ulwalamano oluthile phakathi kweminyaka ye-El Niño kunye nemisebenzi yezinambuzane ezifudukayo ezifana neenkumbi. Ngo-2023-24, indibaniselwano yamaqondo obushushu aphezulu kunye ne-El Niño yabangela umsebenzi ongaqhelekanga wezinambuzane ezifana neempukane ezimhlophe kunye neencukuthu kwiimarike ezininzi zasetropiki.
Uvimba wezinto ezithengiswayo kunye noxinzelelo lwemali: Kwiminyaka eneemeko zemozulu ezimbi kakhulu kwezolimo, ukususwa kwezinto ezithengiswayo kwiindlela zokusasaza kudla ngokuba semva ngekota enye ukuya kwezimbini. Kwimarike yaseBrazil ngexesha lokunciphisa izinto ezithengiswayo ngo-2023-24, isiphumo esidibeneyo se-El Niño sabangela imvula enkulu yasekuhlaleni, kwaye izifo zesoya (ezifana nokugqwala kweesoya zaseAsia) kwezinye iindawo ziye zaba mandundu ngenxa yobushushu obuphezulu. Olu mahluko lwengingqi lwabathengisi bezolimo baseTshayina luthetha ukuba kunyaka omnye, imiqondiso yemfuno evela kwiimarike ezahlukeneyo inokuba ngokuchaseneyo ngokupheleleyo.
Uxinzelelo oludibeneyo oluvela kwizichumisi kunye nezibulali-zinambuzane: Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuba ukufika kwe-El Niño ngo-2026, kunye nokuqina kwezinto ezisetyenziswayo kwiStrait of Hormuz ngenxa yemeko ekuMbindi Mpuma, sele kubeke uxinzelelo ekuthunyelweni kwamanye amazwe kwezichumisi ze-urea kunye ne-phosphate. Kwingxelo yakhe ngoMatshi kulo nyaka, uPaul Donovan, ingcali yezoqoqosho eyintloko ye-UBS, uthe ngokucacileyo: “Ukunqongophala kwezichumisi ze-nitrogen kusenokungabi sisongelo sikhulu kumaxabiso ezolimo kulo nyaka; yi-El Niño ephezulu.”
Ukuthembeka kweemodeli zemozulu kuye kwehla.
Kwiimeko eziqatha, ukuthembeka kweemodeli zemozulu kuya kuncipha. Ingxelo ye-JRC ithi ngokucacileyo ukuba esi siganeko sifikelela kubunzulu "obungazange bubonwe ngaphambili", imodeli yaso idlule ngaphaya kokuthatha imifanekiso engaphambili.°I-C kwiNiño 3.4 ayizange yenzeke ngexesha leerekhodi zezixhobo zomculo. Isiganeko esifanayo ngo-1877-78 sabangela indlala yehlabathi, kodwa asinayo idatha echanekileyo yanamhlanje yokwenza umzekelo ochanekileyo.
Ngoko ke, indawo yale nqaku yile: Cwangcisa iingozi ngokusekelwe kwiziganeko "ezinamandla ukuya kwezomeleleyo kakhulu" ngaphakathi koluhlu lwangoku lwamathuba angama-70% njengemeko esisiseko, endaweni yokubheja kwimeko yomqala ye-+4°C. Eyokuqala sele inzima ngokwaneleyo kwaye inembali eninzi yokuxhomekeka kuyo.
Omnye umthombo wokungaqiniseki ukwindlela esabela ngayo kwezolimo zaseTshayina. Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, iTshayina inyuse kakhulu utyalo-mali lwayo kwizilumkiso zemozulu kwezolimo kunye neziseko zokunkcenkceshela. Amandla ayo okumelana nembalela akanakuthelekiswa nalawo ango-1997-98. Imeko eIndiya iyafana - inkqubo yokunkcenkceshela emva kweNguquko Eluhlaza igubungela inxalenye enkulu yeendawo ezilima irayisi, iphucula ukuqina kwayo kwiimeko ezingaqhelekanga zemvula. Nangona kunjalo, idatha yembali inika uphawu olucacileyo lwendlela yomngcipheko.
Isiganeko se-El Niño sika-2026 kusenokwenzeka ukuba sele siqalile. Umbuzo wokwenene kukuba siphezulu kangakanani na, nokuba ingaba impembelelo edibeneyo yomoya kunye nolwandle iya kuyibangela ukuba idlule na kwiirekhodi zembali.
Kwizolimo zehlabathi, oku kuthetha ukuba ifestile yokungaqiniseki kwesakhiwo iya kuhlala ivuliwe ukususela kwisiqingatha sesibini salo nyaka ukuya entwasahlobo ka-2027. Kwishishini le-agrochemical, oku kubonisa umahluko kwimfuno yengingqi kunye novavanyo loxinzelelo lokuzinza kwekhonkco lokubonelela.
Imbali isixelela ukuba impembelelo yezolimo yesiganeko se-super El Niño idla ngokuba nexesha eliphakathi kweenyanga ezi-6 ukuya kwezili-12 – ilahleko yokwenyani yesivuno idla ngokubonakala kuphela emva kokuba isiganeko sifikelele kwincopho. Oku kuthetha ukuba amaxabiso abonakala kwimarike ngoku asenokungabi naxabiso lipheleleyo kule ngozi.
Ixesha leposi: Juni-23-2026
